DATABASE REVIEW
State of the Nation Depicts American Paradox
by Mick O'Leary
The State of the Nation Project
SYNOPSIS
The State of the Nation Project (stateofnation.org), the work of a bipartisan group of thought leaders, analyzes 15 key Topics that represent the nation’s economy, physical and mental health, and social engagement. It concludes that the U.S. has a powerhouse economy, alongside widespread social withdrawal, civic mistrust, and profound mental health problems.
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How is the U.S., as a country, doing? There is no lack of answers to this complex question, with myriad reports, studies, and polls from across the political spectrum. Some of these showcase a strong economy with high productivity and low unemployment. Others describe high levels of mental illness, income inequality, and decreasing trust in public institutions. Is there a comprehensive, bipartisan synthesis of all of these answers?
Yes, in the form of the State of the Nation Project, a wide-lens aggregation of principal indicators of the nation’s progress—or lack thereof. This work of a bipartisan group of thought leaders looks at more than 30 years of data and compares U.S. results with those from dozens of similar upper-middle/high-income countries. It doesn’t make policy recommendations, but instead provides soundly researched analyses for policymakers to consider.
ABOUT THE PROJECT
The State of the Nation Project is sponsored and funded by the Murphy Institute at Tulane University. The research was conducted by a 14-member board of directors, whose ranks include officials from prominent think tanks and experienced political advisors. The board is resolutely bipartisan, with members on the left from the Brookings Institution and the Economic Policy Institute and on the right from the American Enterprise Institute and the Hoover Institution.
The board identified 15 Topics to study. They are significant indicators of the nation’s economy, mental and physical health, social capital, and civic trust. The Topics were selected by a supermajority of the members. This achieved a broad-based consensus, but also perhaps removed many significant—and recent or edgy—issues from consideration, including the Me Too movement, abortion, gender identity, social media, gun violence, climate disasters, and the turmoil of the present presidential administration. Each Topic was subdivided into one or more Measures, for a total of 37. The research drew upon data from dozens of authoritative governmental, nongovernmental organization, and academic sources. Most of the Measures use data from 1990 to 2022 or 2023. To test the public pulse, the board commissioned YouGov to poll 1,000 representative Americans.
The findings for each Measure are presented on three metrics:
- U.S. trends over time
- Percentage of countries that the U.S. outperforms
- Trend of U.S. ranking among other countries
Each of these is rated as Improving, Stable, or Declining.
The State of the Nation Project reports its findings in four downloadable documents:
- Full Report (138 pages)— Executive Summary, analysis of each Measure, general analysis of key findings, and concluding questions for policymakers
- Executive Summary (19 pages)
- Measures (1 page)—infographic with U.S. trends and percentage of countries that the U.S. outperforms
- Data Notes (64 pages)— methodology, definitions, etc.
 WHAT THE DATA SHOW
Overall, the State of the Nation Project finds that the U.S. is declining on several more Measures than it is improving or staying stable. This pattern occurs both with the with U.S. trends and with the percentages of countries that the U.S. outperforms (see Table 1 on the right).
IMPROVING MEASURES
The U.S. does especially well in the Measures of Economic Output and Productivity. Not only are the U.S. trends for these Measures improving over time, but the U.S. also significantly outperforms other countries in each. The U.S. Economic Output Measure outperforms 98% of other countries. The U.S. is also improving in Measures of Education (Average Years of Education, Young Adults Employed or in School) and Physical Health (Life Expectancy).
STABLE MEASURES
The U.S. remains stable in several Measures of civic engagement, including Voter Participation, Volunteerism, Trust in Local Government, Trust in Criminal Justice System, and Trust in Science.
DECLINING MEASURES
The U.S. has as many Declining Measures (15) as it does Improving (9) and Stable (6) combined. A similar pattern occurs in the Measures where the U.S. outperforms other countries. Eleven of the 15 Declining Measures cluster in two categories: social engagement (8) and mental health (4). The other three Declining Measures are Low Birthweight, Income Inequality, and Labor Force Participation Rate.
The eight social engagement declines are measured in three areas:
- Political—Belief in Democracy, Polarization
- Personal—Satisfaction With Current Life, Social Isolation
- Social trust in—Other People, Federal Government, Police, Colleges and Universities
Mental health declines are measured in:
- Youth Depression
- Depression and Anxiety
- Fatal Overdoses
- Suicide Rate
The mental health declines are particularly troubling. All four show significant increases over time in the U.S., and compared to other countries, the U.S. performance is especially poor, with the U.S. at or very near the bottom on all four.
FROM 30,000 FEET
The State of the Nation Project Executive Summary discusses several Themes that emerge from a 30,000-foot view. Two stand out for capturing the main points. First, U.S. Measures cluster at the extremes, with 24 either improving or declining, while only six are stable. Second, the greatest gaps are between the nation’s economic prowess and the dire state of its mental health and social engagement.
As mentioned, the State of the Nation Project deliberately avoids specific policy recommendations (although it hints at doing so in a later report). Its Conclusion instead takes the form of 12 questions that are intended to assist policymakers in developing their own plans. The questions are thoughtful, sincere, anodyne, and unoriginal. With its strict neutrality, the State of the Nation Project doesn’t want to offend or blame anyone. In the Executive Summary, the words “Republican,” “Democrat,” “conservative,” and “liberal” do not appear.
To be fair, the State of the Nation Project clearly states that its job is not to preach but to explain, and it does this very well. The most compelling document from the State of the Nation Project is its single-page infographic, a marvel of compressed presentation that is at once easily understood and deeply concerning. |
