| FEATURE GMail: Google Storms the Webmail
                        Market
 by Richard Wiggins
 Senior Information Technologist
 Michigan State University
 
 Google's Gmail announcement shook the Internet community
                          in general and the Webmail industry in particular. A
                          1-gigabyte mailbox! Impossible! That amount of
                          storage raises the bar for free e-mail space by a stunning
                          factor: over 100 times the space that Hotmail and Yahoo!
                          provide. Data center types were even more stunned than
                          the general public; they could not imagine how Google
                          expected to handle the connected storage requirements.
                          The Gmail story seemed unbelievable on its face. A
                          whimsically written press release and the announcement's
                          April 1 timing also generated massive doubts as to
                          its authenticity.
  Google released news of the service to the media
                          on March 31. John Markoff covered the story for the
                          April 1 edition of The New York Times, and many
                          media outlets began carrying the story overnight. Your
                          correspondent woke up in the middle of the night on
                          the couch, saw the news story in the online edition
                          of the Times, and posted an incredulous announcement
                          to the Web4lib mailing list  and of course to
                          my Weblog.
                          As news of Google's stunning announcement spread
                          on April 1, many in the media and the public assumed
                          those playful lads in Mountain View were enjoying another
                          April Fool's Day. Internet discussion boards were abuzz
                          with speculation. Google co-founders Larry Page and
                          Sergey Brin wisecracked in the press release, claiming
                          they launched Gmail to help out a single individual
                          who'd complained that managing e-mail is chaotic. Yeah,
                          right, out of hundreds of millions of Google users,
                          they added e-mail to help one guy out?
                          Now we all know that Gmail is very, very real. This
                          article explores what Gmail is, how well it works,
                          some very serious flaws that Google needs to address,
                          the embedded targeted advertising and other privacy
                          concerns, and the behind-the-scenes global server and
                          storage infrastructure that could let the company skyrocket
                          past competitors.
                          A World-Class Webmail Client
                          Let's start with the good stuff. Gmail is awesome. The
                          Webmail client is an amazing piece of engineering.
                          After using it for just a few days, I had already grown
                          fond of it. Now, after a few weeks, it is true love.
                          Gmail engineers have built something that goes far beyond
                          the limitations others thought were inherent in a Webmail
                          client  setting a new standard for highly interactive,
                          intuitive, Web-based clients for other applications
                          as well.
                          The first thing to note is the simplicity of the
                          interface  just what you'd expect from Google.
                          The screen is about as uncluttered as it could be while
                          still providing all the functions you need  well, most of
                          the functions you need. And note the almost total absence
                          of icons. Figure 1 on page 15 shows a Gmail screen
                          for an account with an empty mailbox.
                          Gmail uses textual links where other Webmail clients
                          would use HTML submit buttons or icons. One of its
                          few icons is a yellow star that you use to signal you
                          want a particular message "starred" or flagged as a
                          priority item. However, notice that Google doesn't
                          provide an icon for moving an item to the trash  you
                          have to select the "More actions" drop-down and then
                          select the "Trash" option. I've got a conspiracy theory
                          as to why Google makes it hard to trash things; more
                          on that later.
                          Once you accumulate a number of messages in your
                          mailbox, you'll quickly appreciate the search feature.
                          Gmail indexes your mailbox to let you search it as
                          rapidly as Google Web searches handle the Web. The
                          philosophy is completely different than the familiar
                          approach of filing your mail into folders as you process
                          new items in your in-box. Suffice it to say: The search
                          is as fast as you'd expect from Google. Rival Webmail
                          providers either don't have a search function or performance
                          is painfully slow.
                          Other cool features of Gmail's Web client:
                         
                           You can turn on a feature that provides
                              keyboard shortcuts. Want to type a new message?
                            Just hit the letter C. It's kind of like using an
                            old VT-100
                              mail program such as Pine or Elm from inside a
                            Webmail environment.  As you type in the addresses to the
                            people you wish to e-mail, the client does very fast
                            auto-fill-in
                              of names or addresses it recognizes from previous
                            mailings. When you've typed enough to uniquely identify
                            a correspondent,
                              just hit Enter and the whole address completes.  Another feature grabs the first few
                            words after the Subject line and displays them, peeking
                            inside
                              the message a bit, as Outlook can do.  You know how some e-mail exchanges go
                            back and forth like a conversation? Gmail groups
                            those exchanges into a "conversation" and displays them
                            as a single message. You can easily scan through
                            the conversational
                            history.   If you've used other Webmail clients  and I've
                          used virtually all of 'em  the other thing that
                          strikes you about Gmail is its speed. This sucker is fast. With
                          most Webmail clients, a simple transaction like deleting
                          one message can take forever. You click the "Trash" icon
                          and you wait, wait, wait for the screen to repaint.
                          With Gmail, the screen doesn't repaint  it sort
                          of magically adjusts  almost as if you were using
                          a local client like Outlook.
                          Similarly, the Gmail Web client quietly polls for
                          new messages periodically and adjusts the list of messages
                          to show the new ones without repainting the entire
                          screen.
                          It appears to me that Gmail has invented a protocol
                          that carries on background conversations between your
                          computer and the Gmail mother ship  just as a "real" client
                          like Eudora or Outlook would do. The local client communicates
                          with the Gmail servers over a much more efficient channel
                          than the relatively cumbersome process of sending up
                          HTML form transactions and painting an entirely new
                          screen after each. It's as if you had the advantages
                          of a local mail client talking the IMAP protocol  but
                          it works from any Web browser using JavaScript.
                          How does Google do it? Rumor has it that Google likes
                          to have development teams with as few as three people.
                          Grab three really bright programmers, lock them in
                          a basement with video games and Jolt Cola, and see
                          what comes out in a few months. I'm betting that one
                          of the folks in the Gmail trio is the world's best
                          JavaScript programmer, the second is great on protocols,
                          and the third is superb on CSS and Iframes.
                          Shortcomings and Omissions
                          In case you're starting to think Google handed me
                          tulip bulbs for their Dutch Auction IPO, let me note
                          some shortcomings of Gmail.
                          Google wants you to fill that 1-gig Gmail box just
                          as full as you'd like. That's all well and good in
                          theory  hey, it's their disk budget  but
                          someday I may want to get all that stuff back. Gmail
                          offers no POP support  Google is reportedly thinking
                          about it.
                          When I do fill up that 1-gig mailbox, I'll
                          need to clean it out. Gmail doesn't offer a way to
                          sort your mail by size. Its rivals do. If your mailbox
                          is full, the rational way to go about cleaning things
                          up is to sort the largest items to the top and delete
                          the ones you no longer need. The Gmail folks seem to
                          expect  somewhat naively  that 1 gigabyte
                          will suffice for all time. These days, a lot of us
                          are working with 5 megabyte PowerPoint files or 5 megapixel
                          digital photos. At the rate I'm filling my Gmail account,
                          it'll be full in about a year. When that year ends,
                          I'll demand a way to efficiently download all my stuff
                          and archive it to a burnable DVD.
                          Other shortcomings:
                         
                           The spam detector is not as strong
                            as rivals such as Netaddress.com. It lets an awful
                            lot
                              of spam through, and I've had some false positives
                              that really should not have occurred.  The on-screen layout has some quirks.
                              For instance, a longish Subject line slides action
                              links around in an unexpected way.  Speaking of Subject lines, you don't
                              see the Subject when replying to a message unless
                            you click on Edit Subject.  There's no way to empty the entire
                            Trash folder or the entire Spam folder. That's basic
                            on rival
                              services.  Gmail has no feature for auto-forwarding
                              mail to other accounts. (Remember: It really wants
                              your mail on their servers.)  	There is no automated "signature" feature  a
                            basic shortcoming.  There is no vacation reply feature  another
                            basic shortcoming.  Gmail doesn't work on Macs using Safari,
                              the new native browser for the Mac. And when I
                            tried it on a Mac running Internet Explorer, it still
                            didn't
                              work.  The search feature, while fast, is not the
                              Google search engine. A company spokesperson said
                            that the IR (information retrieval) challenge presented
                              by Gmail was trivial compared to that of the global
                              Web search. One specific impact is the lack of
                            spelling
                              suggestions for near-match queries  a tremendously
                              useful feature in Google Web searching.   Gmail Hates Folders
                          The Gmail tagline is, "Search, don't sort." Google
                          says: "Gmail uses Google search technology to find
                          messages so users don't have to create folders and
                          file their individual e-mails." A Webmail quota of
                          a gigabyte could let you keep years of important
                          e-mails in one place. Combine that with the power of
                          Google searches and you've finally got an efficient
                          way to find that important contract negotiation from
                          3 years ago.
                          Gmail takes the "search, don't sort" mantra to an
                          extreme. It not only says you don't need folders,
                          you aren't even allowed to create any folders!
                          With Gmail, Google has gone out of its way to avoid
                          the folder metaphor. Gmail doesn't want you to do any
                          work as you process new mail. Read it, reply to it,
                          react to it, archive it if you want  but don't
                          spend time trying to figure out where to file it. Yahoo!
                          (and conventional mail services) more or less force
                          you to take a little effort to create a filing system
                          and move incoming mail into folders; Gmail encourages
                          you to archive everything in one flat All Mail folder
                          and just search when you need old stuff.
                          Gmail follows the patterns of Yahoo! and Google's
                          disparate approaches to organizing information: Yahoo!
                          Mail is to Yahoo! as Gmail is to Google. Yahoo! was
                          born as a hierarchically organized filing system for
                          Web sites; Google Web search is famously pure searching
                          of a giant, flat Webspace. The Yahoo! model requires
                          human filing effort  it takes a team of catalogers
                          to put millions of Web sites in the appropriate spot
                          in the hierarchy. With Gmail or with Google Web search,
                          robots do all the work.
                          Even though Gmail doesn't want you to organize your
                          e-mail into folders, you may still want to identify
                          categories of messages in specific ways. In lieu of
                          folders, Gmail lets you apply metadata to a message
                          in the form of "Labels." Gmail does have a handful
                          of pre-defined folders  Inbox, All, Sent, Spam,
                          Trash  but you can't create any folders of your
                          own. (By the way, those last two folders  Spam
                          and Trash  have no universal delete function,
                          unlike every other known Webmail service.) It's almost
                          as if Gmail has a religious conviction that filing
                          into folders is evil.
                          But folders aren't evil. A hierarchical file
                          system remains a powerful and useful option. For instance,
                          I need to keep up with a couple thousand digital photos
                          from the last several years. On my hard drive, I organize
                          by the dates the photos were taken  \2004\03,
                          \2004\04, etc. When I upload to a service such as Sony's
                          Imagestation, I create topical photo albums, drawing
                          from my chronologically organized folders. Gmail would
                          have me simulate this with a flat system of labels.
                          Searching and folders are not antithetical;
                          there's no reason why Gmail couldn't allow the user
                          to create folders. You've already got the pre-defined
                          Spam and Trash folders; why preclude others as the
                          user wishes? Rival services certainly allow this. For
                          my mailbox at usa.net, I have a folder labeled Northwest,
                          where I file all my airline receipts. I'm not very
                          diligent about filing into the Northwest folder as
                          ticket receipts arrive, so periodically I use the search
                          feature to find recent receipts, and move those messages
                          into the Northwest folder. Gmail forces me to do this
                          with labels, claiming this is better than folders,
                          because the same receipt can appear labeled in more
                          than one place (e.g., "Northwest" and "Business Travel").
                          Why not give me both? Let me put all of my Northwest
                          stuff in my Northwest folder and let me label it to
                          boot.
                          Folders are as important for what you don't put
                          into them as for what you do. If you find a folder
                          labeled "1985 Taxes" and know you are a careful filer,
                          you feel pretty confident you can throw the entire
                          folder away when no longer needed. I would be less
                          confident to search an unorganized database, pull up
                          a bunch of items on a hit list labeled "1985 Taxes," and
                          delete all the items without inspection. I know how
                          carefully I file things; I don't know when an unstructured
                          search will pull up some false matches.
                          As readers of Searcher well understand, sometimes
                          we put lots of effort into building good filing
                          systems. The classic example is the Library of Congress
                          classification and cataloging scheme used by major
                          research libraries. This scheme works great in many
                          ways, but the cost to catalog a book usually exceeds
                          the cost of the book. Other online information companies
                          put a lot of work into cleaning data and applying good
                          metadata before content is tossed into the database.
                          Do individuals want to put the same kind of effort
                          into filing their e-mail as LexisNexis or Gale would
                          put into online professional databases? Most of us
                          probably wouldn't. Yet some people expend a lot of
                          energy doing just that. You may not have heard of Nathaniel
                          Borenstein, but you've benefited from his work: He
                          invented MIME, the mechanism used for sending and receiving
                          e-mail attachments. Here's his strategy for coping
                          with mail:
                          My incoming mail goes through several steps:
                         
                           1. Heavy pre-sorting by spam filters and explicit
                            rules sorting e-mail into about 30 different "inbox" folders.   2. Ruthless deletion of stuff I know I won't need.
                            3. Explicit filing of "keeper" messages in one
                            of over 300 archival folders.   Notice that this strategy does *not*
                          lead to the "empty inbox" so many people seem to believe
                          in. In fact, some of my 30 inboxes can get totally
                          out of control while I keep up with others reasonably
                          well.
                          Most of us won't devote so much energy to e-mail
                          storage. So Google tells us that in managing our e-mail,
                          there has to be a simpler path. The question is: How
                          much effort I'm willing to put in up front. As a packrat
                          surrounded by eternal mess, my life is living proof
                          that I cannot organize anything. So for me, Gmail's
                          model is perfect.
                          A colleague, Mike Zakhem, concurs: "The idea of indexing
                          your messages is a new and very Google-centric thing
                          that Gmail has brought to the e-mail game. A lot of
                          e-mail clients will let you search for a message, but
                          often those searches are tedious and time-consuming
                          (e.g., what folder should I look in? Should I look
                          by sender address or sender name? etc.). Google has
                          leveraged its technology to do for its e-mail what
                          it does for its Web searches.
                          In general, the world is moving away from simple
                          file systems that can only put an object (a file) on
                          one place in a hierarchy. Many institutions use content
                          management systems or other database back-ends to replace
                          the simple UNIX-file-system hierarchy for hosting Web
                          content. The file system that Microsoft is creating
                          for Longhorn is basically an SQL database management
                          system. These systems give us great flexibility in
                          managing information and metadata. But great flexibility
                          could imply a great pre-processing burden. The question
                          is, for everyday streams of random data, such as e-mail,
                          will folks put in enough metadata as new items arrive  or
                          will a smart post-processing search engine suffice?
                          My friend Ed Vielmetti, who for many years has worked
                          to harness the power of the Internet to help people
                          share, describes Gmail's notion of organization this
                          way:
                          In the knowledge management world, Google's Gmail
                          seems to support a "big heap of laundry" approach to
                          storing your memories. It does have category tags you
                          can apply to things, but just imagining how many categories
                          you might apply over 1G of mail makes me blanch.
                          Privacy Part One: Fear of Robots
                          As soon as the world learned that Gmail's business
                          model called for ads to appear in your message display  ads
                          with subject matter determined by the content of your
                          message  the privacy community went apoplectic.
                          They simply could not countenance the notion of a robot
                          reading through your every message and serving up ad
                          content based on the words of your correspondence.
                          After much global hand-wringing, it appears the world
                          sorts into these categories:
                         
                           Those who will never use Gmail
                            because they don't trust a robot to keep their secrets.
                           Those who will never knowingly send to
                              a Gmail user because they don't trust a robot to
                            keep their secrets.  Those who are willing to trust the
                            robot in exchange for a highly functional Webmail
                            client
                              and 1 gigabyte of storage space.   I fall into the last category. The robot reading
                          my mail matters not one whit to me. Robots read my
                          mail every day. Every mail service provider worth its
                          salt offers an anti-spam service. That's a robot reading
                          your mail. Most good service providers also offer anti-virus
                          screening as well. And that's another robot reading
                          your mail.
                          What seems to stick in some people's craw is the
                          idea that the robot reading your mail is trying to
                          understand it at the same time. It's scanning the content
                          and tailoring the ads to match your discussion. Of
                          course, Google the Web search service takes the words
                          you type and pulls ads out of its inventory based on that content  but
                          apparently it seems much more personal when you've
                          logged in under your own identity.
                          The targeted ads are unobtrusive, about like the
                          targeted ads that appear when you do Google searches.
                          Usually ads relate to the subject matter of the message
                          reasonably well. Figure 2 below shows what a typical
                          ad looks like.
                          I'm not sure how prominent information architecture
                          guru Lou Rosenfeld feels about being matched up with
                          vocabulary and juggling trainers, but you get the idea.
                          Often the ads can be useful; if you get a message that
                          mentions Lincoln, Nebraska, you'll get tourist and
                          civic ad links.
                          Sometimes the targeting goes hilariously astray;
                          consider this e-mail from Amazon to one of its customers.
                          As you see in Figure 3 above, an ad for Seattle comes
                          up!
                          The Gmail ad program isn't very worrisome if you
                          think of things one message at a time. The privacy
                          community may have a point if you consider the scope
                          of the scanning across entire mailboxes. Gmail actually
                          chides you if you let your mailbox become empty. It
                          makes it hard to delete messages with no convenient
                          Trash icon or button. There's not even a way to delete
                          all the messages in your Spam folder.
                          Put this all together, and it's clear Google doesn't
                          want you to empty out your mailbox; it wants you to
                          leave a lot of mail lying around. The obvious conclusion:
                          Google is data mining all your mail  not
                          just the mail that you're reading right now or the
                          mail that just arrived. (See Figure 4 above.)
                          Now perhaps that just means Google is tuning and
                          re-tuning the ad-matching algorithms. But maybe Google's
                          looking across customers' mailboxes constantly as part
                          of the tuning process. Maybe some sort of network analysis
                          is being done of the kinds of things you and your correspondents
                          talk about  and which ad links you click on individually
                          and collectively. The more the Google robot co-mingles
                          data as it analyzes mail content, the more squeamish
                          some people will become.
                          Privacy Part Two: A Gig of Your Life Is a Big
                            Target
                          Suppose someone guessed your Hotmail password. That
                          could lead to embarrassment, but, since you can only
                          store so much information in a few megabytes, your
                          exposure is limited. If you're an active e-mail user
                          and you send and receive attachments, your exposure
                          might be only a few weeks.
                          Now let's imagine you're a Gmail user and someone
                          guesses your password. Your exposure could be years
                          of your life. The target is bigger, as is the payoff
                          for accessing the target.
                          But guessing your password is only one way someone
                          might gain access to your Gmail. One obvious point
                          of attack is a hacker. I asked Wayne Rosing, vice president
                          of engineering for Google, about the threat of such
                          a large target. Rosing said that Google has a very
                          capable team of security experts guarding the perimeter: "We're
                          committed to upholding the absolute highest levels
                          of privacy. It's not really an issue of how big the
                          mailbox is; it's a question of how good your security
                          is." I asked if Gmail encrypts customer mail just in
                          case someone gets past the perimeter. He said no, "encryption
                          is computationally pricey."
                          The bottom line is that if a hacker did break into
                          the perimeter and could access Gmail servers, all customer
                          e-mail would be in clear text.
                          The privacy community probably worries less about
                          hackers breaking in than in the government using the
                          Patriot Act to get in without knocking the doors down.
                          Hmm, access to years of a person's life  combined
                          with Google quality search as well. You can imagine
                          how appealing this might be to a government pursuing
                          suspected terrorists  or tax evaders.
                          Google's Gmail privacy statement is superficially
                          reassuring, but it says Google must comply with "government" demands
                          for access. But which government? I asked Rosing
                          if my Gmail mailbox might be stored on a server in
                          China, where the Patriot Act pales. He indicated that
                          Google wouldn't store data in nations where it would
                          be subject to government invasion and that in any event
                          Google has no data centers in China.
                          Here again, I think the privacy community has a valid
                          concern. Before Gmail, your personal mail was scattered
                          across many places, with your most personal information
                          probably residing on a hard drive under your control.
                          Gmail invites millions of people to move their personal
                          discussions to a common pool  and to leave large
                          amounts online. I claim that Gmail will cause the largest
                          migration of personal information in the history of
                          the world.
                          If Google has a mission statement, it is its famous
                          dictum of "do no evil." When I talk to Google officials,
                          I sense they really believe in that creed. However,
                          I think perhaps they are a tad naïve, not realizing
                          that external forces may cause them to invade privacy
                          in ways they've never imagined.
                          Privacy Part Three: Flaws in Gmail Are the Real
                            Privacy Threat
                          Once I drove up to an ATM and was surprised to see
                          on the screen, "Another Transaction?"
                          A little slow on the uptake, I took a second to realize
                          that the car pulling away had left their card in the
                          machine in mid-transaction. Hmm.... Tempting.... Gmail
                          has a couple of related design flaws that ATM designers
                          anticipated decades ago.
                          Scenario one: You log into a public terminal  say
                          in a public library or a cybercafé. You forget
                          to click the "Sign Out" button before you get up and
                          leave.
                          The next person who walks up to that terminal now
                          has your entire life at their fingertips  years
                          of e-mail, efficiently searchable. Pretend you are
                          a detective or a snoop, and think about some of the
                          searches you might type in if you sat down and saw
                          someone else's entire life history in the browser window.
                          Your life history remains exposed as long as that computer
                          is turned on and the Web browser remains open. The
                          session never expires.
                          Scenario two: You visit your boss or a colleague
                          and quickly check your Gmail for that report you mailed
                          last week. You forget to sign out. When you go back
                          into your own office, you sign back into Gmail. Everything
                          seems perfectly fine. But the other Gmail session is
                          still active. In fact, it's automatically updating
                          your Inbox listing. Your boss can read your new mail,
                          search your old mail, or even send new messages from
                          your mailbox  indefinitely. You have no way to
                          close his view into your life and, if he doesn't send
                          or delete, you have no way to detect it.
                          Gmail's rivals figured out these exposures eons ago
                          and implemented session timeouts and multiple login
                          detections as remedies. While the privacy community
                          wails over a robot serving up relevant ads, they're
                          missing the entire point. (See Figure 5 below.)
                          These flaws shouldn't be hard to fix. Because Gmail
                          can expose years of your life, Gmail should "time out" aggressively  maybe
                          after only 15 minutes of inactivity. If you time out,
                          Gmail should prompt for your ID and password before
                          resuming your session. (It should not log you
                          out and send you back to a fresh login.)
                          It should be easy for Gmail to detect when you log
                          into a second session. How should the Gmail system
                          react? At a minimum, it should log out the first session  the
                          one you left logged in for the boss to read.
                          What surprises me is that Google didn't "get it" and
                          address these issues long before the public beta. My
                          guess is that it took such a blank slate approach that
                          it blanked out on the public terminal issue.
                          The other surprise is that privacy activists jumped
                          all over other issues without seeing the obviousness
                          of these flaws.
                          The Viral Marketing Campaign
                          Besides the curious tactic of a confusing April 1
                          launch, Google also chose to introduce Gmail to the
                          public using a new tactic. Instead of handing out accounts
                          to reporters from the tech media and national papers,
                          Google gave "tokens" to employees that they could use
                          to invite friends to join. Later, beta testers might
                          log in to see an invitation to invite their friends
                          to join the beta.
                          A fascinating experiment in social networking ensued.
                          People with Gmail accounts began sending mail to their
                          friends, who in turn wanted in on the beta. Some people
                          began selling their "tokens" on eBay.
                          In effect, Google's slow rollout became a viral marketing
                          strategy. The media wrote about Gmail, but only a few
                          people had accounts. Those who did bragged to friends
                          and posted screen shots on their blogs. Welcome to
                          the Gmail Witch Project. In terms of creating buzz,
                          it was brilliant.
                          However, the strategy may not have been universally
                          brilliant. If Google had given Gmail accounts to the
                          Katie Hafners and Walter Mossbergs of the world up
                          front and let them see how the targeted advertising
                          works, the initial furor over privacy might've been
                          muted significantly.
                          There's another issue, one tough nut that Google
                          will have to crack: How do you prevent someone from
                          signing up for 50 Gmail accounts in order to get 50
                          gigabytes of free online storage? That's always been
                          possible with Hotmail and Yahoo! mail, but it's pretty
                          hard to stitch together a serious free data store at
                          a pace of 4 megs at a time. At 1 gig per shot, the
                          stakes change. So how is Google going to limit this
                          activity? I can't think of a reasonable way for a free
                          service to keep people from setting up multiple identities.
                          Google's Global Infrastructure Advantages
                          The economics of Gmail just seem impossible to data
                          administrators worldwide  especially those who
                          administer e-mail services. After the announcement
                          proved to be true, I began asking tech types a simple
                          question: What is the cost of a gigabyte of reliable,
                          backed-up, broadband-connected-to-the Internet storage?
                          I was surprised that I couldn't find a ready answer
                          from the folks who I thought would know. Dr. Charles
                          Severance, my globe-trotting research professor friend
                          at the University of Michigan, had no ready answer,
                          but a day later came up with a figure of $1 to $2 per
                          gig per year. Hmmm. So if Google signs up 20,000,000
                          Gmail users, it will need to cover $20M to $40M per
                          year for storage alone. Or to put it another way, Google
                          needs 1-2 per year per subscriber to cover storage
                          costs. That's certainly easy to imagine. Not everyone
                          who signs up will fill the quota.
                          One person who manages the campus e-mail service
                          for a large Midwestern university simply could not
                          believe the Gmail announcement. Although disk is
                          cheap and storage costs have been plummeting for 2
                          decades, there are many more costs than just disk. "There's
                          no way they can afford to back up that much data!" he
                          exclaimed. "The costs of tapes and tape drives and
                          personnel will kill them!"
                          Ahh, but that assumes that Google is backing
                          things up to tape. Google famously uses low-cost commodity
                          servers and the cheapest disks that money can buy.
                          (One rumor has it that in the early days Google assembled
                          its own Linux PC servers from commodity parts and didn't
                          even bother to put the covers on the components. Suppose
                          Google's thinking differently? Suppose it's backing
                          up not to tape, but to disk? As e-mail administrators
                          worldwide started doing back-of-the-envelope calculations,
                          other folks began theorizing as to what Google's global
                          infrastructure is really like.
                          A few years ago Google admitted that it had over
                          10,000 servers in production. The Web has grown since
                          then and so has Google's dominance. How many servers
                          does Google have online in mid-2004? Some smart folks
                          took Google's SEC filings, assumed minimum cost servers,
                          and calculate that Google has about 100,000 servers
                          in production worldwide.
                          It's not just the raw count of servers, of course.
                          An intriguing posting to Dave Farber's "Interesting
                          People" mailing list suggests that Google has built
                          a global infrastructure than no one can match. Suresh
                          Ramasubramanian suggested what Google might have built:
                          Google has taken the last 10 years of systems software
                          research out of university labs and built their own
                          proprietary, production quality system. What is this
                          platform that Google is building? It's a distributed
                          computing platform that can manage Web-scale data sets
                          on 100,000-node server clusters. It includes a petabyte,
                          distributed, fault-tolerant file system, distributed
                          RPC code, probably network shared memory and process
                          migration. And a datacenter management system which
                          lets a handful of ops engineers effectively run 100,000
                          servers. Any of these projects could be the sole focus
                          of a start-up....
                          This computer is running the world's top search engine,
                          a social networking service, a shopping price comparison
                          engine, a new e-mail service, and a local search/yellow
                          pages engine. What will they do next with the world's
                          biggest computer and most advanced operating system?
                          Tech visionary George Gilder told me: "Google is
                          exploiting the key abundances of the era: bandwidth
                          and storage, summed up in my model as 'Storewidth,'
                          in order to supply what is scarce: Just-in-time information.
                          Google is the prime Storewidth company." Gilder calculates
                          the cost of storage at about $2.33 per gigabyte per
                          year, including depreciation and maintenance. But he
                          thinks Google enjoys other advantages:
                          Since Google must sustain these costs anyway to support
                          its search capacity, advertising model, and news services,
                          I believe that their marginal cost for supplying e-mail
                          is close to zero when the increasing volume of usage
                          of all services is considered. Market share and volume
                          are everything in these front-loaded Internet services.
                          With more numbers and better targeted advertising,
                          Google will make out like bandits, without the downside
                          of encountering Wyatt Earp at the FTC corral.
                          How Is the Competition Reacting?
                          If your competition is indeed running the world's
                          biggest computer and most advanced operating system,
                          how do you react? How do you react when the competition
                          offers mailboxes 100 to 200 times larger than what
                          you brag about?
                          Figure 6 at right shows how Yahoo!, weeks after Gmail
                          was announced, is still bragging about a paltry 4 megabyte
                          mailbox:
                          Any company selling a rival Webmail service must
                          be sweating. I repeatedly asked Netaddress.com, which
                          sells Webmail accounts with 50 megabytes of storage
                          for about a buck per meg per year, how it reacted;
                          Netaddress.com did not reply.
                          Other companies that might be affected include vendors
                          of desktop e-mail client software. Gmail is so good
                          that I can imagine many people abandoning their Eudora
                          or their Outlook. (In corporate environments, however,
                          things may differ; I suspect the network security manager
                          for Ford Motor Company would not be too thrilled to
                          have company discussions housed on Google's servers.)
                          Vendors for add-on software may also be affected.
                          Caelo, a software vendor based in British Columbia,
                          releases an add-on called NEO that provides a fast-indexed
                          search of your Outlook folders. A spokesperson for
                          the company said that Gmail may "legitimize the idea
                          of fast searching, so that people will demand fast
                          searching inside Outlook. Our sales may increase because
                          of Gmail."
                          Here We Go Again
                          Whether you're a potential Gmail user, a rival Webmail
                          vendor, a university e-mail administrator, or otherwise,
                        you can't ignore Gmail. Clearly, a new game is on. 	
                          GROOVY GMAIL TRICKS
                          Many folks use their e-mail to manage their lives,
                          keeping up with what they need to work on, deleting
                          items as tasks are completed. Gmail could help people
                        organize their lives in a variety of ways:                                                
                         
                           Chuck Severance works with developers at
                            Stanford, MIT, Indiana, Michigan, and elsewhere,
                            building a collaboration
                            environment called Sakai. E-mail plays a vital role
                            in a multi-institution development project. Chuck
                            prefers his familiar mail client software on his
                            Mac laptop,
                            but he finds Gmail's ability to search old mail and
                            to group related conversations into a single thread
                            very useful. So he reads his mail using conventional
                            tools, but he auto-forwards a copy of all e-mail
                            to his Gmail account. When he needs to dig up a past
                            thread,
                            a quick login to Gmail and a quick search bring up
                            the relevant conversation quickly. Gmail also lets
                            him log in quickly over the Web if he's away from
                            his familiar client software. (Chuck's suggestion
                            for the
                            Gmail developers: Invent MailRank, analogous to the
                            famous PageRank algorithm that forms the core of
                            Google's success, e.g., "Put e-mail from the boss
                            at the top of the hit list.")  If you have multiple personas  day
                            job, consulting work, family life  you might
                            be tempted to use a separate mailbox for each persona.
                            But Gmail's
                            labeling, threading, and searching capabilities could
                          help you organize it all in one mailbox.  The threaded conversation grouping is also
                              useful for taming a chatty mailing list. From time
                              to time I join Sigia-L, a listserv for information
                              architects, teeming with the output of an unruly
                            and chatty lot. Collapsing 30 postings on a single
                            topic
                            into one item in the inbox is tremendously helpful.  People such as authors, consultants, and
                            speakers may long for the services of a rich corporate
                            IT environment.
                              But Gmail could offer a poor man's document management
                              system: Leave old PowerPoint files, project plans,
                              even contracts in your Gmail archive, using labeling
                              and searching to fetch what you need on demand.  Searcher's esteemed editor, Barbara
                            Quint, had another suggestion for Gmail, but it required
                            switching Web search engines from Google itself to
                            Amazon's new A9 Web search engine. Don't feel bereft.
                            Google supplies the searching in A9. Here's what
                            bq had to say in a Newsbreak entitled "Amazon Introduces
                            New Web Search Engine" [https://www.infotoday.com/newsbreaks/nb040426-2.shtml]:   Most of the reviewers of the new site have praised
                          it for its appeal to end-user searchers, but pointed
                          out that, at this point, it would have limited appeal
                          to power searchers. On the other hand, it might have
                          some appeal to intermediary searchers working with
                          clients and doing extensive Web searching. Since A9
                          holds search histories centrally and allows toolbar
                          users to annotate result lists, one could envision
                          professional searchers using the service as a collaborative
                          tool. Use A9 for searching and annotating search results.
                          Share the registration password with clients or colleagues
                          working in a collaborative mode. That circle of associates
                          can search and annotate their own results, or just
                          expand the annotations on entries provided by others.
                          Of course, one would recommend that the user identification
                          tying all this together not be connected to anyone's
                          credit card, as it might if based on an Amazon.com
                          registration. However, it should be simple to set up
                          an e-mail identity. In fact, if one used Google's new
                          Gmail, one could add a gigabyte of storage to the project's
                          resources.
                          And all for free. God bless the Web.
                        
                                                  
                         
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